Ethereum’s Price Stalls at $2,400 Despite Positive Catalysts
Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced at $2,400. Despite positive developments, Ethereum has struggled to maintain upward momentum. The cryptocurrency ended June with negative returns, failing to capitalize on factors like strong ETF inflows and accumulation addresses.
- Ethereum finished June with negative returns, despite positive catalysts.
- Geopolitical tensions and record short positions on the CME exchange played a role in suppressing price movement.
- A bearish crossover has appeared on the 12-hour chart after a rejection near the $2,500 level.
Ethereum experienced a 3% drop on Tuesday, extending its decline from June. This occurred despite significant positive developments, including substantial ETF inflows, record accumulation address purchases, and public companies launching ETH treasuries.
Why Ethereum Didn’t Rally in June
Ethereum concluded June with a 1.5% decrease, resulting in a 25% loss for the first half of the year. This is despite achieving several milestones during the month, according to data from Cryptorank.
Spot Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. had their second-best month since launch in June, recording $1.16 billion in net inflows. There were only three trading days with outflows, totaling $39.98 million, the lowest monthly outflow volume recorded.
June also saw the largest monthly inflow into ETH accumulation addresses in history, indicating high demand. Accumulation addresses, often new wallets, are those that have never recorded outflows or selling activity.
Several public companies, including SharpLink Gaming (SBET), Bit Digital (BTBT), and BitMine (BMNR), launched ETH treasury strategies. The total value of ETH staked on Ethereum steadily increased to a new all-time high of 35.52 million ETH.
The GENIUS stablecoin bill passed the U.S. Senate with bipartisan support, improving sentiment around the Ethereum blockchain, which controls nearly 50% of the stablecoin market, according to data from DefiLlama.
Ethereum failed to sustain an upward trend despite these positive catalysts, which typically drive price growth.
Potential reasons for the limited range-bound movement of ETH include geopolitical tensions affecting the entire cryptocurrency market. Triggered by nuclear attacks between Israel and Iran, ETH lost key support levels, briefly falling to $2,110, offsetting days of underlying bullish structure.
ETH also reacted negatively to the dispute between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and President Trump on social media platform X regarding the One Big Beautiful Bill in June. At the time of publication, ETH saw a 3% drop on Tuesday, with tensions between Musk and Trump intensifying again after the bill passed the Senate.
Investors appear to be expanding the ETH basis trade, with short positions on the CME exchange growing alongside inflows into ETH ETFs.
EmberCN, a smart wallet tracker, noted that a key whale/institution withdrew 95.3K ETH from staking in the last three weeks, sending 68.1K ETH to exchanges for potential selling.
Ethereum Price Forecast: Bearish Crossover After Rejection at $2,510
Ethereum saw $46.06 million in futures liquidations in the last 24 hours, according to data from Coinglass. Total long and short liquidations are $40.10 million and $5.96 million, respectively.
ETH extended its consolidation in the tight range of $2,300 to $2,500 on Monday after a rejection near the key level of $2,510, which bears have defended over the past week.
Just above $2,510, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed below the 100-period SMA, implying a short-term death cross signal. The death cross is a lagging indicator showing that short-term price momentum is weaker than long-term momentum.
With this signal in play, if ETH fails to hold the support line near $2,350, it could bounce off the lower boundary line of a symmetrical triangle pattern, reinforced by the 200-period SMA. However, a subsequent decline below these key levels and the $2,110 support could send ETH tumbling towards $1,750.
On the upside, ETH needs to overcome resistance near the 50-period SMA and the 100-period SMA to retest the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is range-bound near its neutral level, while the Stochastic Oscillator has descended towards its oversold region, indicating increasing bearish momentum.
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