Analysts Give Over 90% Probability of Approval to Altcoin ETFs, Including XRP and Litecoin, After SEC Engagement

Bloomberg Analysts Predict High Approval Odds for Altcoin ETFs

Cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on altcoins have received a significant boost in their chances of approval, according to Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas. They now estimate that most of these ETFs have a greater than 90% likelihood of getting the green light.

This optimistic forecast comes as the crypto industry eagerly awaits the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on various cryptocurrency ETF applications. Seyffart and Balchunas have specifically increased their approval probabilities for several altcoin ETF filings, with the exception of those related to SUI.

“Eric Balchunas and I are raising our odds for the vast majority of spot crypto ETF applications to 90% or higher,” James Seyffart announced on X.

The analysts had previously increased their approval odds for most altcoin ETFs in April. According to Seyffart, the shift in probabilities primarily focuses on altcoin ETFs with 19b-4 filings.

Specific Altcoins with High Approval Odds

The updated forecast suggests that ETF applications for Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and XRP have a 95% chance of approval. Other cryptocurrencies, including Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), HBAR, and Avalanche (AVAX), have been assigned a 90% approval probability.

With over 20 altcoin ETF applications awaiting the SEC’s decision, the increased probabilities indicate a strong possibility that most of these products will be approved by the agency.

SEC’s Engagement with ETF Applications

The increased optimism aligns with the SEC’s recent engagement with ETF applications. Regulators requested that proposed issuers of spot Solana ETFs update their S-1 filings and provide details about their staking plans earlier this month.

Additionally, the SEC sought public comments on Franklin Templeton’s ETF applications for Solana and XRP. The review process extended the decision deadline by 35 days, pushing the expected resolution to July.

The SEC also held a roundtable discussion on decentralized finance (DeFi), focusing on how DeFi aligns with American values such as economic freedom and innovation. The event particularly addressed regulatory obstacles to smart contracts and innovation in digital assets.

Timing of Approvals Remains Uncertain

Seyffart notes that the exact timing of when these ETFs might be approved or launched remains uncertain.

“The timing of these approvals/launches is more uncertain. It could be something we’re talking about in the next month or two. Or it could be something that waits until October or later. It’s a matter of when, not if,” Seyffart stated on X.