Bitcoin could surpass gold as early as 2025, according to analysts. According to a report released this week, the bank stated that the world’s largest digital asset continues to be driven by specific factors in the crypto market, such as growing institutional adoption, the consolidation of ETFs, and the expansion of the derivatives market.
With Bitcoin trading near US$104,000 — 5% below its all-time high — experts believe that investors are migrating back to risk assets.
“We expect the zero-sum game between gold and Bitcoin year-to-date to extend for the rest of the year, but we are biased towards crypto-specific catalysts that create more upside potential for Bitcoin relative to gold in the second half of the year,” said analysts.
Meanwhile, gold has fallen about 9% since its peak in April, trading at US$3,230 at the time of this article, after reaching US$3,500.
The drop reinforces the contrast with BTC’s performance, which rose 17% in the same period.
Crypto market matures with acquisitions and licenses
The report states that the environment for cryptocurrency derivatives is becoming more robust and secure, which increases the confidence of traditional investors.
Examples of this were the recent major acquisitions in the sector: Coinbase bought Deribit, Kraken acquired the NinjaTrader platform, while Gemini received authorization to offer derivatives in Europe.
These acquisitions indicate that the crypto derivatives ecosystem is maturing and beginning to operate under clearer rules in the US and the European Union.
With this, there is a growing expectation of entry of new institutional investors who previously avoided the sector due to lack of regulation.
Bitcoin ETFs lead capital inflow
Another piece of data that reinforces the bank’s thesis is the performance of ETFs. Since December 2024, Bitcoin-based funds have received more capital than gold ETFs, according to K33 Research.
This trend continues in 2025, and confirms that institutional interest in Bitcoin is not fleeting.
Finally, analysts believe that the “flow dispute” between gold and Bitcoin should continue throughout the year, but with a favorable bias towards the cryptocurrency.
Among them are laws that allow states and companies to add BTC to their reserves and the growth of Bitcoin’s use as a treasury asset by large corporations.
With the derivatives market gaining maturity and institutional flows intensifying, Bitcoin may be paving a solid path to definitively surpass gold as the preferred store of value in the new digital age.
