Bitcoin Could Reach $444,000 by 2026, Study Predicts

A new study is making waves in the cryptocurrency world, suggesting that Bitcoin could see a dramatic price surge in the coming years. João Paulo Mayall, founder of QR Capital, recently shared the analysis on social media, highlighting its optimistic projections for the digital currency.

The study, authored by Murray Rudd and Dennis Porter, forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $444,000 by June 2026. Further, it predicts it will hit $1 million in early 2027, and potentially soar to $5 million by 2031.

Mayall recently announced his departure from QR Capital, the company behind Latin America’s first Bitcoin ETF, QBTC11.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $107,600, up 1.9% in the last 24 hours.

The Study’s Predictions: A Closer Look

The study, titled ‘A Supply and Demand Framework for Forecasting the Price of Bitcoin,’ was published in January. It gained traction recently after Mayall shared it.

The analysis examines institutional demand and the “HODL” behavior of Bitcoin investors, set against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million units. The study suggests that Bitcoin’s price could quadruple within the next year and continue its upward trajectory in subsequent years.

“Based on Murray Rudd’s supply and demand study, Bitcoin is expected to reach around $444K by June 2026, $1M in early 2027, and $5M by 2031.”

Mayall’s post featured a chart illustrating projected prices based on a constant demand multiplier and varying rates of net supply withdrawal. This scenario explores how Bitcoin’s price might react to continuous purchases by companies as coins are taken out of circulation.

“At the highest level of withdrawal, there is a clear shift from a logistic-style curve (driven by adoption) to a trajectory that begins to increase hyperbolically.”

Recent activity in the Bitcoin market supports the idea of growing demand. Strategy recently purchased $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, while BlackRock’s IBIT ETF saw inflows of $1.1 billion.

Mayall’s post also caught the attention of Adam Back, the creator of Hashcash and a prominent figure in the Bitcoin community.

Back has also begun analyzing companies that are accumulating Bitcoin on their balance sheets.

One example is his comments on the shares of Japanese company Metaplanet, which he suggests may be more attractive than Strategy’s stock.


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