Bitcoin Consolidates Amidst Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Bitcoin’s price is currently consolidating between $103,000 and $107,500. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, large holders continue to show interest in BTC. Exchange reserves of Bitcoin have fallen sharply, reflecting growing investor confidence.
Market Overview: Bitcoin’s Consolidation Extends
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading sideways, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, inflation fears, and tariff uncertainty in the United States. Despite the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, Bitcoin’s price remains elevated above the $103,000 support level.
Donald Trump’s delay in deciding on a potential strike against Iran caused global markets, including crypto, to rise slightly. However, traders remain cautious, mirroring Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance on the economy, citing short-term inflation expectations due to tariffs.
“Despite projections suggesting relief, Chairman Powell adopted a notably aggressive tone, warning about rising inflation from tariffs and saying the Fed needs to ‘learn more’ before acting,” according to a K33 Research report.
Lateral trading may persist over the weekend, with waning interest in Bitcoin indicated by muted funding rates and a gradual decrease in Open Interest (OI) in the derivatives market.
“Risk reversals in BTC and ETH continue to show a preference for downside protection in June and September timeframes. This suggests that long-term holders are actively hedging spot exposure and preparing for potential drawdowns,” QCP Capital noted.
Fundamental Perspective: Bitcoin Holders Accumulate
Large Bitcoin holders continue to accumulate, despite caution from spot and derivatives traders.
Santiment’s Supply Distribution metric shows that whale groups, particularly those holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, have a notable risk appetite for BTC. These addresses currently represent nearly 24% of the total Bitcoin supply, up from 23% on April 1 and 22.5% on January 1. This accumulation rate reflects persistent net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $47 billion on Thursday.
Bitcoin’s stability is also supported by consistent on-chain activity, with a marginal increase in 30-day active addresses.
According to Santiment’s Active Addresses metric, the number of active addresses over a 30-day period remains just below 14 million. These addresses interact with the protocol by sending and receiving BTC.
A steady increase in this metric indicates rising demand for Bitcoin, often leading to bullish momentum and positively impacting price.
CryptoQuant highlights that Bitcoin’s exchange balance has decreased to nearly $57 billion. This decline, from a peak of around $64 billion on May 22, suggests a potential reduction in selling pressure. Investors are moving Bitcoin from exchanges to self-custody, indicating a preference for long-term holding and confidence in Bitcoin’s future performance.
Technical Outlook: Bitcoin’s 50-day EMA is Critical
Bitcoin’s price is around $104,057 after paring intraday gains from Friday’s peak of $106,457. Key technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), support a bearish bias as it falls below the 50 midline.
The Money Flow Index (MFI), which tracks the amount of money entering BTC, has curtailed its uptrend, stabilizing around the midline. This reflects contained interest in Bitcoin in both spot and derivatives markets.
If downside vulnerability eclipses on-chain demand and network activity, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support at $103,169 could absorb selling pressure. Beyond this level, high volatility could accelerate the decline, bringing key levels like the 100-day EMA at $99,085 and the 200-day EMA at $93,404 into focus.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin is consolidating between $103,000 and $107,500.
- Large holders show continued interest in BTC.
- Bitcoin exchange reserves are declining.
- The 50-day EMA is a critical support level.
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