Bitcoin Price Rebounds as Traders Eye Las Vegas Conference
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing resilience, bouncing back to $109,000 on Tuesday after a nearly 4% dip on Friday. This recovery coincides with the highly anticipated Bitcoin 2025 Conference in Las Vegas, drawing significant attention from traders and investors alike.
Volatility on the Rise Ahead of Bitcoin Conference
QCP Capital reports a short-term surge in implied volatility, suggesting market participants are positioning themselves for potential event-related risks. This could lead to increased volatility and liquidations in the leading cryptocurrency.
The Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, running from Tuesday to Thursday, is a key event to watch. This three-day conference marks the sixth annual Bitcoin gathering since 2019, highlighting the growth, innovation, and adoption of Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin 2025 Conference is set to host prominent figures from crypto, finance, and politics. Speakers include:
- JD Vance – Vice President of the United States
- Michael Saylor – Executive Chairman, MicroStrategy
- Donald Trump Jr. – Entrepreneur
- Eric Trump – Co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer
- Senator Cynthia Lummis – U.S. Senate
- Hester Peirce – Commissioner, U.S. SEC
- Ross Ulbricht – Digital Freedom Advocate
- Nigel Farage – Member of Parliament, UK
QCP Capital notes that the sustained elevation in short-term volatility indicates traders are hedging against potential risks before the event.
The firm points to the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in July 2024, where a speech by then-President Donald Trump caused a spike in 1-day implied volatility above 90%. This surge was followed by a rapid reversal, resulting in a nearly 30% drop in BTC within two days.
“The probability of a similar drop appears low; positioning suggests a defensive bias,” QCP Capital analysts stated.
They anticipate BTC to remain range-bound in the short term. Once the event concludes and key speeches are delivered, short-term volatilities are expected to compress as risk premiums fade.
Short-Term BTC Holders Take Profits
Data reveals that short-term BTC holders have realized a total of $11.4 billion in profits over the past 30 days, a significant increase from the $1.2 billion realized in the preceding 30-day period. This surge in profit-taking suggests potential consolidation as the market absorbs this wave of distribution before attempting another upward move.
Despite short-term selling pressure, institutional demand continues to strengthen. On Monday, MicroStrategy added 4,020 BTC for $427.1 million, bringing their total holdings to 580,250 BTC.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Recovers Above $109,000
Bitcoin’s price reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,980 on Thursday before falling 3.92% on Friday. However, it found support around the $106,406 level on Saturday and has been recovering over the past two days. As of Tuesday, it continues to rebound, trading around $109,600.
If BTC continues its recovery and closes above its all-time high, it could extend the rally towards the key psychological level of $120,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 67, trending upwards towards the overbought level of 70, indicating that bulls still control the momentum. However, traders should be cautious as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a bearish crossover, signaling a potential sell-off and suggesting a downtrend in the future.
If BTC faces a pullback and closes below its daily support at $106,406, it could extend the correction to retest its next key support level at $100,000.
Bitcoin, Altcoins, and Stablecoins: Key Definitions
Understanding the landscape of cryptocurrencies requires clarity on key terms:
- Bitcoin: The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, designed as a decentralized digital currency.
- Altcoins: Any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, with some excluding Ethereum due to its foundational role.
- Stablecoins: Cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable price, often pegged to a fiat currency like the U.S. Dollar.
- Bitcoin Dominance: The ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, reflecting investor interest.
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