Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster Ride: May’s Surge and June’s Uncertainty

Bitcoin experienced a robust performance in May, climbing nearly 20% and reaching a new all-time high of $111,917. However, late-month selling pressure trimmed some of these gains, reducing the monthly advance to approximately 10%. Despite this pullback, the recent surge reflects positive technical momentum and solid underlying fundamentals. As June begins, investors are closely monitoring for signs of a potential new upward leg.

On-Chain Data Confirms Long-Term Confidence

On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin’s May rally was driven not only by speculative demand but also by increased confidence from institutional and retail investors. Nearly 66,975 BTC—approximately $7.2 billion—were withdrawn from exchanges to private wallets during the month. This movement indicates a continuous pattern of accumulation and a strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation potential.

Throughout the month, this accumulation supported a largely positive scenario, with occasional price spikes driven by FOMO (fear of missing out)-motivated purchases. Simultaneously, the growing proportion of long-term holders reduced selling pressure, helping to maintain the upward trend.

Macroeconomic Trends Favor Upside

On the macroeconomic front, several factors continue to support Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. The slowdown in global inflation gives central banks more room to ease monetary policy. Concurrently, the weakness of the U.S. dollar and the decline in real interest rates have increased the appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with the stock market and consistent institutional flows indicate that it is becoming increasingly integrated into the traditional financial system. This marks a significant shift: Bitcoin’s price is now more influenced by global macroeconomic trends than by factors specific to the crypto universe.

Factors shaping the recent price movement include U.S. tariff policies and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy management. The initial decision by the U.S. Court of International Trade to block tariffs provided momentary relief to the markets. However, this optimism quickly dissipated when a court of appeals suspended the cancellation, reigniting uncertainty. In this chaotic environment, Bitcoin’s recent correction gained momentum.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Profit-Taking

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded strong inflows throughout May, experienced net outflows at the end of the month, indicating profit-taking by short-term investors amid uncertainty. Nevertheless, the overall picture remains robust. Total flows remain close to $45 billion, demonstrating continued institutional interest and a resilient medium-term outlook for Bitcoin.

Cautious Investors Despite Upward Trend

Bitcoin continues to have significant potential to extend its upward trend, supported by favorable macro conditions, solid demand, and accumulation by long-term investors. However, in the short term, the market remains sensitive to corrections driven by profit-taking.

As June arrives, price behavior around key technical levels will be decisive. ETF flows, accumulation patterns, and macroeconomic signals remain the primary drivers influencing Bitcoin’s path.

Despite making a new push towards $110,000 at the beginning of the week, profit-taking intensified after the sharp decline on May 23.

Mid-week, Bitcoin lost support at $108,000, breaking below the upward trend that began in April. The lower edge of the ascending channel coincided with the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA), which had been serving as dynamic support in the short term. At the end of the week, the asset is testing intermediate support at the 21-day EMA, currently around $105,300.

Maintaining this level in daily closings could help contain the current correction. However, regaining the $108,000 zone is essential to resume the upward trend. A successful breakout could restore buying momentum and pave the way for the next target in the $114,000 to $125,000 range.

On the downside, a break below $105,000 could lead to a fall towards the support zone from early May, near $102,500. If the downward movement continues, the psychological level of $100,000 will be the next critical support to monitor.

Despite short-term volatility, the medium- and long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. Any corrective movement could simply widen the current upward channel and offer new entry points for long-term investors.

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