Altcoin ETF Approval Could Spark a “Summer of Altcoins” in 2025
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart are predicting a potential “summer of altcoins” in 2025. Their optimism stems from the belief that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to approve a significant portion of the pending cryptocurrency ETF applications.
The analysts estimate that the SEC could approve 31 out of the 33 submitted crypto ETF proposals. This wave of approvals could pave the way for ETFs based on various altcoins, expanding investment opportunities in the crypto market.
Currently, only spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs are traded on American exchanges.
Experts Weigh in on Cryptocurrency ETF Approval Probabilities
In a recent note, Balchunas and Seyffart shared their analysis of the cryptocurrency ETF applications awaiting SEC approval. They suggest that the majority of these applications have a high chance of getting the green light.
Several prominent firms, including Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, Bitwise, Franklin, and Fidelity, are vying to launch Solana ETFs. For XRP ETFs, the list of contenders includes Coinshares and WisdomTree, alongside some of the firms mentioned above.
According to the Bloomberg analysts, Solana ETFs have a 90% probability of approval, while XRP ETFs have an 85% chance. Here’s a breakdown of their estimated approval probabilities for other altcoins:
- Litecoin — 90% chance of approval
- Solana — 90% chance of approval
- XRP — 85% chance of approval
- Dogecoin — 80% chance of approval
- Cardano — 75% chance of approval
- Polkadot — 75% chance of approval
- HBAR — 80% chance of approval
- Avalanche — 75% chance of approval
- SUI — 60% chance of approval
The analysts also note that ETFs based on cryptocurrency indexes, which track multiple cryptocurrencies, have a 90% chance of approval. Additionally, an ETF proposal for Tron (TRX) is currently under review.
“Prepare for a possible ‘summer of altcoin ETFs,’ with Solana likely leading the way (as well as some basket products),” Balchunas stated.
While the final deadlines for the SEC to respond to these applications are in October and November, Balchunas and Seyffart suggest that the Commission could approve them as early as July.
Should You Buy These Cryptocurrencies Now?
The potential impact of these ETF approvals on the market is a key question for retail investors. Initially, the increased exposure could drive up the prices of these cryptocurrencies.
However, it’s important to consider that many of the applications are from Grayscale. If approved, Grayscale would convert its existing funds into ETFs, which could lead to significant outflows and selling pressure.
Furthermore, while ETFs have boosted Bitcoin’s price, the same hasn’t necessarily been true for Ethereum. Therefore, it’s possible that these other cryptocurrencies may not experience the same level of demand.
“We’ll probably have some [ETFs with positive inflows], but it’s hard to say how many — and nothing will compare to bitcoin,” Seyffart commented. “We have a saying on the team: ‘the further you get away from BTC, the less assets there will be.'”
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