Ripple’s XRP Faces Resistance Despite Institutional Interest
Ripple’s XRP is encountering increasing upward pressure, hindering its recovery below the $2.22 resistance level. The cross-border money transfer token is currently trading at $2.17, a slight dip of over 1% on Monday. This minor correction reflects a cautious sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market, preceding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal, on Tuesday.
XRP’s Technical Challenges Persist
Despite positive signs, XRP faces technical hurdles. According to CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report, XRP experienced inflows totaling $10.6 million last week. This brings the month-to-date inflows to $21.2 million, and the year-to-date inflows to $219 million, with total assets under management (AUM) reaching $1.18 billion.
The CoinShares report suggests that this investor demand is driven by a combination of factors, primarily heightened geopolitical volatility and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy direction.
The derivatives market for XRP is also showing signs of strength. Open Interest (OI) in XRP futures remains stable above $4 billion, indicating growing interest in the token. This is particularly notable after recovering from a dip to $3.54 billion on June 23rd, reaching $4.19 billion on Monday.
Open Interest represents the number of futures and options contracts that have not yet been settled or closed. An increase in OI alongside rising volume suggests strong conviction among traders in the digital asset, reflecting increased trading activity.
The derivatives market’s trading volume is currently near $3 billion, a 17% increase in the last 24 hours. Liquidations totaled approximately $3 million, with long positions accounting for around $1.52 million and short positions at $1.53 million.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Trend Targets 200-day EMA Support
XRP is currently trading around $2.18, recovering from support at $1.90. However, it’s facing resistance from the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $2.22.
The path of least resistance appears to be downward, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly below the midline. A further decline into oversold territory would signal bearish momentum, giving sellers the upper hand.
The 200-day EMA highlights potential support at $2.10, which could be tested in the coming sessions if the decline continues.
A sell signal was triggered by the SuperTrend indicator on May 31st, potentially validating the bearish trend. This trend-following tool uses Average True Range (ATR) data to measure market volatility.
Traders use the SuperTrend as dynamic support and resistance. A sell signal is confirmed when XRP’s price falls below the tool, changing its color from red to green.
If the downward leg extends below the 200-day EMA support at $2.10, key levels that are likely to gain importance include $1.90, which was tested on June 22nd, $1.80, and $1.61, both of which were tested in April.
On the other hand, due to consistent investor interest in XRP, the decline could be limited, allowing for consolidation before another breakout attempt. A 7.44% increase from the current price level could take XRP to the hurdle at $2.33, tested on June 16th, and the highest peak of June at $2.65$, implying a 22% move.
Ripple FAQs
Is XRP a security?
It depends on the transaction, according to a court ruling published on July 14th:
- For institutional investors or over-the-counter sales, XRP is a security.
- For retail investors who purchased the token through programmatic sales on exchanges, on-demand liquidity services, and other platforms, XRP is not a security.
What is the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple about?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Ripple and its executives of raising over $1.3 billion through an unregistered asset offering of the XRP token.
Although the judge ruled that programmatic sales are not considered securities, sales of XRP tokens to institutional investors are investment contracts. In the latter case, Ripple did violate U.S. securities law and will have to continue litigating for the approximately $729 million it received under written contracts.
What are the implications of the court ruling?
The ruling offers a partial victory for both Ripple and the SEC, depending on what you look at.
Ripple gets a big win over the fact that programmatic sales are not considered securities, and this could bode well for the cryptocurrency sector in general, as most assets in the SEC’s crosshairs are handled by decentralized entities that sold their tokens primarily to retail investors through exchange platforms, experts say.
Still, the ruling does not do much to answer the key question of what makes a digital asset a security, so it is still unclear whether this lawsuit will set a precedent for other open cases affecting dozens of digital assets. Issues such as what is the appropriate degree of decentralization to avoid the “security” label or where to draw the dividing line between institutional and programmatic sales are likely to persist.
How does this ruling affect the broader crypto industry?
The SEC has intensified its enforcement actions toward the blockchain and digital asset industry, filing charges against platforms like Coinbase or Binance for allegedly violating U.S. Securities Law. The SEC claims that most crypto assets are Securities and are therefore subject to strict regulation.
While defendants can use parts of the Ripple ruling to their advantage, the SEC may also find in it reasons to maintain its current strategy of regulation through enforcement.
What’s next for Ripple and the SEC?
The court resolution is a partial summary judgment. The ruling can be appealed once a final judgment is issued or if the judge allows it before. The case is in a pre-trial phase, in which both Ripple and the SEC still have the possibility of reaching an agreement.
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